An unidentified trader on the cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket turned a $32,537 wager into more than $436,000 in profit by betting on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power. The bet came just hours before U.S. forces captured Maduro in a military operation, sparking questions about possible insider information.
The account, created last month, focused solely on Venezuela-related bets. It placed the stake on whether Maduro would leave office by January 31. Odds shifted dramatically after the wager, and the payout followed President Donald Trump’s announcement of the capture on Saturday.
Polymarket operates as a decentralized platform where users bet on real-world events using cryptocurrency. Bets resolve based on outcomes, with winners collecting from losers. In this case, the trader bought shares at low prices, cashing out as news of the U.S. action broke.
The event unfolded amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela. Trump cited Maduro’s disputed 2024 re-election and allegations of election fraud as reasons for the intervention. U.S. officials described the operation as a “large-scale strike” that led to Maduro’s detention, along with his wife.
From those of us here in Costa Rica, the development carries weight. Thousands of Venezuelans have sought refuge here since Maduro’s regime intensified crackdowns. The reports are that over 100,000 Venezuelan migrants are in the country, many fleeing economic collapse and political repression. Costa Rican President Rodrigo Chaves condemned Maduro’s government in the past and called for democratic transitions in the region.
Experts note that prediction markets like Polymarket often reflect public sentiment but can attract scrutiny for potential manipulation. “These platforms reward accurate forecasts, but large bets timed perfectly raise flags,” said a financial analyst familiar with crypto markets. Regulators in the U.S. have not commented on this specific trade, though similar cases have prompted investigations.
Maduro’s capture marks a turning point in Venezuelan politics. Opposition leaders, including María Corina Machado, hailed the move as a step toward restoring democracy. Interim reports suggest Maduro faces extradition to the U.S. on charges related to drug trafficking and corruption.
The bet’s success highlights the growing role of crypto in global events. Traders on Polymarket have wagered millions on political outcomes, from elections to conflicts. This incident, however, stands out for its timing and scale.
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